According to Colin Cambell, one of the leading advocates for the study of peak oil, “the term Peak Oil refers to the maximum rate of the production of oil in any area under consideration, recognizing that it is a finite natural resource, subject to depletion." Methods for predicting peak oil have been controversial since the beginning of oil production back in the 1860’s. Popular press has carried stories from time to time over the last 150 years of the imminent demise of oil production, often backed up by data from prominent geologists.

In 1956 M. King Hubbert, a Shell geophysicist, proposed a method for predicting peak oil by balancing the finding rate and size of oil discoveries with the production rates and volumes. Plotting discoveries over time yields a curve resembling a normal distribution while the depletion plots as a similar curve, shifted in time. He successfully predicted the peak production year and ultimate production for the United States lower 48 some 13 years prior to its decline. Since then these discovery and depletion curves, known as Hubbert Curves, have been used to predict the peak oil production in numerous basins throughout the world.

In recent years, world oil reserves have taken on considerable clarity as the world discovery curve has been defined. Balancing world production with historical discoveries suggests that the world is at or near peak production for conventional oil and lease condensate. As global demand continues to increase, it is clear that demand will soon outpace the supply. This realization is reflected in recent oil price volatility and particularly in the July 2008 peak oil price of $138 per barrel. The world economic crisis has temporarily lowered demand and extended the duration of peak oil production, delaying what is predicted to be a precipitous decline in world conventional oil production.

John is an oil and gas prospector and consultant with J L Wicks Exploration in Wooster, Ohio. He has been in the oil and gas industry since 1980. After receiving his masters degree in geology from the University of Toledo, he went to work in the Texas and Louisiana portion of the Gulf of Mexico first for Cities Service and then for Standard Oil of Ohio. In 1986 John moved to Alaska where he explored for oil on the North Slope for BP Exploration. He has been working in the Appalachian Basin, mostly Ohio, since 1994. John is a Certified Petroleum Geologist, member of AAPG, SIPES, and OGS.